Oil prices are ＂flying＂, fuel vehicles may be phased out at an accelerated pace

On May 30, the price of refined oil was raised again. No. 92 gasoline was raised by 0.31 yuan per liter, No. 95 gasoline was raised by 0.33 yuan per liter, and No. 0 diesel was raised by 0.33 yuan per liter. After this price increase, it cost an extra 15.5 yuan to fill up a tank of No. 92 gasoline, and No. 92 gasoline in some areas entered the 9 yuan era.

This is the ninth time this year that oil prices have risen, and netizens have called it "too expensive", "can’t afford to hurt", "don’t dare to drive out", "hurry up and change the tram"… It seems to be a joke, but it is actually a true reflection of the impact of rising oil prices on the fuel vehicle market. At a time when major traditional auto giants have announced their shift to the new energy vehicle market, and governments around the world have also given the green light to new energy vehicles, the easy rise in oil prices may be a catalyst that will accelerate the downturn in the traditional fuel vehicle market and accelerate the process of its eventual replacement.

"9 up and 1 down", oil prices rose alarmingly

Since the beginning of this year, oil prices have continued to be "red" and have experienced "9 rises and 1 falls". netizens lamented, "I can afford a car, but I can’t afford to add fuel."

Beijing Youth Daily checked the website of the National Development and Reform Commission and learned that this year, the first oil price increase can be traced back to January. Since 24:00 on January 17 this year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 345 yuan and 330 yuan per ton respectively. On average, No. 92 gasoline has been increased by 0.27 yuan per liter, No. 95 gasoline has been increased by 0.29 yuan per liter, and No. 0 diesel has been increased by 0.28 yuan per liter. According to the estimate of the 50L capacity of the fuel tank of the general household car, it costs 13.5 yuan to fill up a tank of No. 92 gasoline.

Less than half a month later, oil prices ushered in the second price increase of the year. The National Development and Reform Commission announced that since 24:00 on January 29 this year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 310 yuan and 300 yuan per ton respectively. On average, No. 92 gasoline has been raised by 0.24 yuan per liter, and No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel have both increased by 0.26 yuan per liter. Beiqing Daily estimates that it costs an extra 12 yuan to fill up a tank of No. 92 gasoline based on the 50L capacity of the general household car fuel tank.

It has been only a month since the first price increase this year, and oil prices have risen "three times in a row". Beijing Youth Daily learned from the National Development and Reform Commission that since 24:00 on February 17 this year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 210 yuan and 200 yuan per ton respectively. On average, No. 92 gasoline has increased by 0.16 yuan per liter, and No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel have both increased by 0.17 yuan per liter. According to the estimate of the 50L capacity of the fuel tank of the general household car, it will cost 8 yuan to fill up a tank of No. 92 gasoline.

Half a month later, another round of hikes has been welcomed. Since 24:00 on March 3 this year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 260 yuan and 255 yuan per ton respectively. On average, No. 92 gasoline has been raised by 0.2 yuan per liter, and No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel have both increased by 0.22 yuan per liter. According to the estimate of Beiqing Daily based on the 50L capacity of the fuel tank of the general household car, it will cost 10 yuan more to fill up a tank of No. 92 gasoline.

Oil prices have risen for five consecutive years, setting a new high this year. Since 24:00 on March 17 this year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 750 yuan and 720 yuan per ton respectively. On average, No. 92 gasoline has increased by 0.59 yuan per liter, and No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel have both increased by 0.62 yuan per liter. According to the estimate of Beiqing Daily based on the 50L capacity of the fuel tank of the general household car, it costs 29.5 yuan to fill up a tank of No. 92 gasoline.

Oil prices rose slightly, but the rally continued. Since 24:00 on March 31 this year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 110 yuan per ton. On average, No. 92, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel have each increased by 0.09 yuan per liter. According to the estimate of Beiqing Daily based on the 50L capacity of the fuel tank of the average household car, it costs 4.5 yuan to fill up a tank of No. 92 gasoline. After the price increase, the retail price of No. 95 gasoline is approaching the peak of 9.32 yuan/liter in October 2018.

This year’s "six consecutive rises" in oil prices have finally ushered in the first decline. Since 24:00 on April 15 this year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 545 yuan and 530 yuan per ton respectively. No. 92 gasoline has been reduced by 0.43 yuan per liter, and No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel have both been reduced by 0.45 yuan per liter. According to the estimate of Beiqing Daily based on the 50L capacity of the fuel tank of the general household car, it costs 21.5 yuan less to fill up a tank of No. 92 gasoline.

The drop in oil prices did not last long, and the rise immediately caught car owners off guard. Since 24:00 on April 28 this year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 205 yuan and 200 yuan per ton respectively. No. 92 gasoline has been raised by 0.16 yuan per liter, and No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel have both increased by 0.17 yuan per liter. According to the estimate of Beiqing Daily based on the 50L capacity of the fuel tank of the general household car, it will cost 8 yuan more to fill up a tank of No. 92 gasoline.

From 24:00 on May 16, 2022, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 285 yuan and 270 yuan per ton respectively. On average, No. 92 gasoline will increase by 0.22 yuan per liter, No. 95 gasoline will increase by 0.24 yuan per liter, and No. 0 diesel will increase by 0.23 yuan per liter. According to the estimate of Beiqing Daily based on the 50L capacity of the fuel tank of the general household car, it will cost 11 yuan more to fill up a tank of No. 92 gasoline.

From 24:00 on May 30, 2022, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 400 yuan and 390 yuan per ton respectively. The above-mentioned amplitude adjustment discount price is 0.31 yuan per liter for No. 92 gasoline, 0.33 yuan per liter for No. 95 gasoline, and 0.33 yuan per liter for No. 0 diesel. According to the estimate of Beiqing Daily based on the 50L capacity of the fuel tank of the general household car, it will cost 15.5 yuan to fill up a tank of No. 92 gasoline.

Fu Yuwu, honorary chairperson of the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers, told the Beijing Youth Daily: Russia is one of the world’s largest oil producers and exporters. At present, due to uncertain factors such as the Russian-Ukrainian war and the international situation, the original oil supply situation has been broken, causing a large supply imbalance. Affected by this, oil prices may still fluctuate in a short period of time, and this global oil supply problem will continue to affect for a period of time.

The pressure on the fuel vehicle market has doubled

From January to April this year, the cumulative sales of Chinese brand passenger cars 3.098 million, an increase of 9.8% year-on-year, accounting for 47.6% of the total sales of passenger cars, an increase of 6.0 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, car sales 1.136 million, an increase of 34.3% year-on-year, market share of 37.3%, of which, in April, car production and sales were completed 1.205 million and 1.181 million vehicles, down 46.2% and 47.1% month-on-month, down 46.1% and 47.6% year-on-year. From January to April, car production and sales 7.69 million and 7.691 million vehicles, down 10.5% and 12.1% year-on-year, ending the growth trend in the first three months of this year.

From May 1st to 22nd this year, the retail sales of the national passenger car market 780,000, down 16% year-on-year and up 34% month-on-month. Among them, the retail sales of the overall narrow-sense passenger car market reached an average of 32,000 units per day in the first week, down 21% year-on-year, and an average increase of 29% compared with the first week of April this year. In the second week, the retail sales of the overall narrow-sense passenger car market reached an average of 33,000 units per day, down 22% year-on-year, and an average increase of 26% compared with the second week of April this year. In the third week, the retail sales of the overall narrow-sense passenger car market reached an average of 42,000 units per day, down 6% year-on-year, and the performance gradually improved. Compared with the

The Passenger Car Market Information Association said that it will be difficult to return to normal levels before the end of May, and the pressure on the supply side will not decrease. In the new energy market, production and supply have picked up compared with last month. It is expected that the new energy market will still maintain a market penetration rate of about 25% in May. Affected by high oil prices, more people will choose to buy new energy vehicles. The supply of new energy vehicles in May will improve significantly compared with the previous month. It is expected that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in May will grow at a high rate compared with April. The automobile market is struggling under multiple unfavorable factors, but the new energy vehicle market is still better than traditional fuel vehicles.

Consumers and local governments favor new energy vehicles

Faced with soaring oil prices, an increase in charging facilities, and increasingly mature new energy vehicle products, more and more consumers are beginning to consider buying new energy vehicles. Owner Mr. Yang told Beiqing Daily: When I chose to buy new energy vehicles, I took into account that the charging cost of new energy vehicles is much lower than that of traditional fuel vehicles. The charging cost of electric vehicles is only a few tens of yuan, but the refueling cost of fuel vehicles is more than ten times that. Coupled with the continued rise in oil prices this year, the cost-effectiveness advantage of new energy vehicles has become increasingly prominent.

Mr. Wang, who plans to buy a car, told Beiqing Daily: In the past, when buying a car, the fuel consumption, brand, word-of-mouth and performance of the car will be given priority. With the maturity of the technology, intelligence, configuration, performance, charging supporting services and other related facilities of new energy vehicles, coupled with the impact of the epidemic, long-distance travel plans are limited in the short term or even for a long period of time. In contrast, the purchase of new energy vehicles is more cost-effective, and the purchase of new energy vehicles will be given priority.

Local governments have also introduced preferential policies for new energy vehicles to boost the development of the new energy vehicle market, and the traditional fuel vehicle market has been further frustrated. The Hainan Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Several Measures to Encourage the Use of New Energy Vehicles in Hainan Province in 2022" on March 29 this year to speed up the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in Hainan Province, ensure that new energy vehicles account for more than 30% of new vehicles in 2022, and promote the achievement of "peak carbon dioxide emissions" and "carbon neutrality" goals in the transportation sector. The General Office of the Hubei Provincial People’s Government issued the "Notice on Issuing Several Measures to Accelerate Consumption Recovery and Boosting".

On May 22, the General Office of the People’s Government of Hubei Province issued the "Notice on Printing and Distributing Several Measures to Accelerate Consumption Recovery and Boost". The notice proposes that from June to December 2022, the special project of exchanging old cars for new cars will be implemented, and subsidies will be given to individual consumers who scrap or transfer old cars with Hubei license plates under their personal names and buy new cars in the province and license them in the province. The required funds will be borne by the provincial and municipal and state finances of 50% respectively. Among them, the subsidy for scrapping old cars and purchasing new energy vehicles is 8,000 yuan/unit, and the subsidy for purchasing fuel vehicles is 3,000 yuan/unit; the subsidy for transferring old cars and purchasing new energy vehicles is 5,000 yuan/unit, and the subsidy for purchasing fuel vehicles is 2,000 yuan/unit.

Fuel vehicles may be forced to accelerate their elimination

Will the soaring oil price accelerate the exit of fuel vehicles? Fu Yuwu, honorary chairperson of the China Society of Automotive Engineers, told the Beijing Youth Daily: Although oil prices have continued to rise recently, the raw materials for new energy vehicle power batteries are also rising. Due to the global warming in recent years, low-carbon travel and green travel have become the main theme of people’s travel, and it is urgent to accelerate the realization of the "double carbon" goal. Although the world is accelerating the transformation of electric vehicles, the rise in oil prices is not the fundamental reason that affects consumers’ purchase of traditional fuel vehicles for the time being. At present, the commercial vehicle market still relies on traditional fuel vehicles. Its complete replacement involves energy diversification and other issues. The rise in oil prices will not affect the replacement of traditional fuel vehicles at all. However, traditional fuel vehicles may face the process of being gradually replaced.

Roland Berger partner Xu Huxiong believes that our country’s new energy vehicle market relies more on policy guidance in the early stage of development, and currently relies more on market promotion. Consumers’ acceptance of new energy vehicle products themselves is becoming more and more important to the development of the new energy vehicle market. In the past, consumers did not buy new energy vehicles mainly because of factors such as battery life and insufficient charging piles, but the problems of new energy vehicles on the battery life and other products are gradually improving. The charging problem of new energy vehicles in most areas has also been effectively solved, and consumers are less and less worried. In addition, the supply of new energy vehicle products on the market is becoming more and more abundant, and the degree of intelligence of new energy vehicles is constantly improving. Consumers will naturally prefer new energy vehicles. When consumers buy a car, they will comprehensively consider factors such as the function of the car, the driving experience, and the level of intelligence in the whole life cycle. At present, the rise in oil prices has led to the increase in the use cost of traditional fuel vehicles, compared with the advantages of new energy vehicles in the use cost of fuel vehicles. With the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market, in addition to the cost factors of the whole life cycle, intelligence and battery life are also very important.

"Judging from the new energy vehicle plans issued by major countries and governments around the world, by 2030 and 2035 at the latest, there will be no more fuel vehicle sales in the market, and a new trend has taken place," Ni Jun, chief manufacturing officer of CATL, said recently at the 2022 World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.