At noon, it rose sharply, and at night, it fell sharply … What happened to these two varieties？

　　Recently, the soda ash futures market is bright, while the caustic soda futures are relatively calm. After continuous pull-up, the upward drive of soda ash futures weakened, and caustic soda futures stabilized and rebounded. Yesterday, there was a positive pull-up, reaching a maximum of 2745 yuan/ton. As of midday, soda ash rose more than 5% and caustic soda rose nearly 5%. However, soda ash and caustic soda all weakened during the night session. By the end of the night session, soda ash fell more than 4% and caustic soda fell more than 1.4%.

　　Analysts generally believe that in the process of strong rebound of soda ash, the industry has certain expectations for the rise of caustic soda.

　　It is reported that both caustic soda and soda ash are in the salt chemical industry, and soda ash has certain substitution in some application fields, such as printing and dyeing, washing, etc. However, caustic soda and soda ash have a small amount of substitution in the use of auxiliary materials in alumina production, and their proportion is less than 10% in alumina production capacity. Aluminum plants still use caustic soda as the main auxiliary materials. In addition, the future standard products of caustic soda and soda ash are liquid and solid respectively, and the logic of substituting 32 or 50 liquid caustic soda with soda ash is even weaker.

　　"The continuous rise of soda ash is mainly due to the supply-side disturbance driving the downstream replenishment sentiment. Under the condition of low inventory in the factory, the focus of spot transactions continues to rise, which coincides with the gradual approach of delivery of the 2401 contract, and the disk continues to repair high discounts." Zhang Na, a black researcher at Guantong Futures, said.

　　futuresHu Peng said that soda ash futures have risen sharply recently, spot prices have remained stable, and market sentiment is more optimistic. Spot prices continue to rise rapidly, and the latest spot quotation is in the range of 2900-3000 yuan/ton.

　　"From a fundamental point of view, the output of soda ash increased by 0.2 million tons to 662,000 tons this week; The downstream demand was generally stable, the demand for replenishment increased, and the inventory of alkali plants decreased by 14,000 tons to 367,000 tons. " Hu Peng said that after nearly three months of accumulation, the domestic total inventory of soda ash is close to the level in July and March this year, and the inventory is at a low level, but it is obviously better than that at the end of August. Recently, the overhaul of soda ash has increased, and the supply pressure has eased. This week, there was no change in one production line for cold repair of float glass and photovoltaic glass. Recently, the sum of daily melting amount of float glass and photovoltaic glass has increased steadily and slightly, and the demand for heavy alkali is good, while the demand for light alkali has not changed much. "The fundamentals of soda ash have not changed much in the short term, and limited production in some areas and favorable real estate policies have strong support for the disk." Hu Peng said.

　　"Yesterday, caustic soda futures fell back and fluctuated sharply during the day." Jin Guo said that on the one hand, the current small caustic soda plate has led to an increase in price and decline, on the other hand, macro expectations have given bulls confidence.

　　"The caustic soda futures stopped falling from the end of October and entered the consolidation stage. The center of gravity fluctuated within the range of 2500-2750 yuan/ton, and it has not yet shaken off the oscillation." Xia Congcong, head of Shanghai Branch of Founder Mid-term Futures Research Institute, said that from a fundamental point of view, caustic soda does not have the rising logic of soda ash. The driving force for the price increase of caustic soda driven by the rise of soda ash is mainly reflected in emotion.

　　"From its own fundamentals, the caustic soda market lacks favorable support and the market may be unsustainable." Xia Congcong said that the supply and demand in the caustic soda market are loose, and it is difficult to support the rising market. The utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity is high, and the supply of goods is sufficient, but the demand is generally followed up, and the inventory of caustic soda enterprises has accumulated to a high level.The contract is a distant month contract, which is in a relatively off-season stage.

　　In the view of Golden Fruit, the spot caustic soda is still weak, and it is difficult for the supply and demand side of caustic soda to effectively drive up. "The start of the supply side has been raised to the current high level in the past five years, the weekly output has been further improved, and the liquid alkali plant has continued to accumulate, and the margin of supply and demand is still weakening. The demand side is weak: at the alumina side, electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan has limited production to compress the demand for alumina, and the north faces negative factors such as environmental protection and limited production. " Golden fruit told reporters that from a fundamental point of view, the price of caustic soda is still likely to fall, and the driving force for the continuous rise of the disk is not strong.

　　"At present, the downward drive of caustic soda spot comes from the increase of supply pressure and the decline of demand, which is superimposed on the weakness of export and South China market, resulting in weak demand for 50 caustic soda, further increasing the supply pressure of 32 caustic soda market."Zhang Chi, head of futures energy, said that caustic soda will face a pattern of high output and high inventory in the future.

　　Because the storage capacity of caustic soda is limited and the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali is still 20%, manufacturers can only reduce the price and go to the warehouse until the spot price falls to regional arbitrage, the demand for stocking increases or the manufacturers face losses, which leads to production reduction.

　　"It should be noted that the key point of the long-short game is not necessarily in the spot market." Zhang Chi said that the main contract of caustic soda futures is 2405 contract. Based on the staged reconciliation between China and the United States and the expectation that the Fed will raise interest rates to the peak, the forward contract will reflect the optimistic expectations of the market. After mid-March, 2024, caustic soda will still face the spring maintenance period, and the uncertainty of the supply side, the expected continuous improvement of demand and the simultaneous delivery will affect the valuation of the disk.

　　In Xia Congcong’s view, the supply of caustic soda market is stable. In the winter heating season, due to the influence of the policy side, alumina enterprises in the north have more maintenance, and the consumption of caustic soda is expected to decrease, which affects the mentality of the operators to some extent. In the later stage, there are adjustment expectations for the purchase price of liquid caustic soda in the downstream. "The fundamental support is limited, and the caustic soda futures price continues to rise weakly. Short-term attention is paid to whether it can break through the previous high, and the overall trend is still under pressure. We must be cautious in chasing up." She said.

　　In Zhang Chi’s view, the first half of December is the key node for the decline. Under the circumstance that all negative factors are reflected, if the disk is not reflected, there is hardly room for further decline in the short term. "Overall, the market is driven downward, and the continued weak price difference between 50 alkali and 32 alkali will further increase the supply pressure of 32 alkali in the future, and the demand for just-needed and stocked goods will be weak. However, based on long-term optimistic expectations and valuation differences, the medium-term market may be dominated by oscillations. " Zhang Chi said.

　　"At present, the price of alumina has begun to weaken, which has suppressed the price of caustic soda. From the end of the year to the beginning of next year, the demand for non-aluminum is off-season, and the demand for lithium hydroxide, as a growth point of alkali consumption, has also shown signs of weakening; On the supply side, most of the early maintenance devices have been restarted, supply and demand tend to be loose, and the inventory pressure has not been highlighted yet. The caustic soda market needs to pay attention to device dynamics and macro-emotional changes. " Wu Zhiqiao, head of Green Dahua Futures Energy Group, said.

　　Comparatively speaking, at present, the speed of soda ash storage has slowed down, and it is still in a low inventory state. "The market has not yet seen the expected gradual increase in inventory with the start of construction. Coupled with the unexpected production and the reduction in Qinghai, it has strong support for the price of soda ash, and the space below soda ash is temporarily limited, which is expected to continue the strong oscillation." Wu Zhiqiao said.

　　In Hu Peng’s view, the short-term soda ash trading is macro-positive, and the overall price is strong, but the medium-term supply pressure still exists. "There is a high probability of oversupply of soda ash in the medium term, so wait patiently for the logic switch of market transactions, and pay attention to selling hedging opportunities in the upstream. In the later stage, it is necessary to focus on the progress of maintenance, the progress of new production capacity and regulatory policies. " He said.